Why Understand Randomness and Statistics?

What Is Randomness to the Casino?

Without intervention, the flip of the card, the roll of the dice, and the resting spot of a ball are random events. The casino is built on randomness and randomness is extremely difficult to overcome. It is an absolute necessity. The payout structure of the game is built upon randomness. The tables, wheels, slot programs are all made to be as random as possible.

If even a slight hint of non-randomness appears, the players will find it and use it to their advantage. This has happened many times through history such as a team finding a roulette wheel that is imbalanced and giving a slight preference to one section of numbers.

How Does Randomness Work?

We all tend to have a built-in or innate sense for patterns. If we see a row of trees lined up, we know it was intentional. We look for patterns everywhere and we even expect patterns to exist where they do not belong. Where patterns do not exist is the realm of randomness. If I pick up a quarter and flip it, I genuinely cannot know if it will land heads or tails because it is a random event.

One of the deepest and most misunderstood topic by players within the casino is that of randomness. Randomness is something that is truly difficult to comprehend ... both short term and long term. With genuine randomness, there are no patterns ... they simply do not exist. With true randomness, betting strategies are of limited help. A betting strategy will only show what level of risk you are comfortable taking. [Keep in mind that randomness has nothing to do with the House Edge.]

Understanding randomness will let you know patterns do not exist and betting strategies are of limited help.

In fact, the best you can do long term is come out even.

What Does Statistics Tell Us?

Statistics was the last major branch of mathematics to be discovered or developed. Why? Because it does not make sense to what we intuitively expect.

Statistics is an amazing tool for quantifying averages and showing how things happen in the long term. However, it is absolutely terrible at predicting short term. For example, if we flip a coin we can state there is a 50/50 chance of the coin landing on heads or tails. We can state that long term an equal number of heads and tails will appear. We can state an average frequency of how often heads should appear five times in a row. Yet we cannot predict whether heads or tails will appear on the very next flip of the coin nor if five heads in a row will occur in the next ten attempts.

Mathematical models will typically come up with a bell-shaped curve. It provides information about averages, means, extremes, the likelihood of certain outcomes which leads to variability, volatility, and a whole host of other information.

Statistics will give you an understanding of long term averages and more realistic expectations from wagering. Neither one can tell you what the next card, number, or spin will be.

certain outcome smore likely than others

Why is Gambling on Randomness a Bad Idea?

The simplest way to explain this is to separate the randomness and the house edge. A person playing a game in a casino is fighting them both at the same time and it is not a fair fight. You should be aware that going into a building that has both of these at play is causing you to lose your money.

When you approach a game, you should have a good betting strategy. With no strategy, you will lose your money quickly. With a good strategy, you will lose your money slowly. With a great, long term strategy you can probably hold even against the randomness. However, no betting strategy in the world will overcome the house edge. With the house edge, the more you play the more you will lose. That is why they say "the house always wins". It is as simple as that. The casino knows that randomness will even out over time and the house edge is what they will keep.

Gambler's Fallacies

Adding insult to injury are the many ways that people can fool themselves with gambling ideas that are not true. The phrases "red has not hit for awhile so it is due" and "this pattern can't lose that many times in a row" are both logical fallacies that can lead to disastrous consequences. Although having events stay close to the average is expected, those extreme events will appear from time-to-time as should be expected.

Even Advantage Play Waits on Randomness

In card counting, you must wait on randomness to make that uneven distribution that is in your favor. Even then, while the odds might be slightly in your favor, it is no guarantee of a win. With dice control, you are trying to gain some advantage by romoving some of the randomness [not all of it] ... and the casino will fight you to keep it as random as possible by mking the craps table more bouncy, and with the "alligator" side boards, and other techniques. They want it as random as possible because that is how they set up the payout structure upon. The thing to realize is that even with some skill, these goals are ridiculously hard to accomplish.

It is interesting to note that casinos want gamblers ... people who are wagering on randomness. If a person has any skill, something that gives them an advantage, they do not want that person as a customer. If you are betting on your skill being able to defeat the randomness and the casinos edge and you are sucessful, they will ask you to leave.

What About Randomness and Patterns in Real Life?

There are many memes and jokes that involve life and statistics. For example, there is a common one that states that your chances of being killed by a cow are extremely low, but never zero. While techinically true, this is something most people will never have to worry or think about. However, if Scripture is correct, then nothing in life is acctually random. Good and evil actions will have their judgments of blessing or cursing sooner or later. Some religions recognize this pattern, but since they do not believe in a single god, they use the concept of karma. There is a spiritual equivalent to punishments and rewards and it works through angels and demons; blessings and curses; and miracles and magic. These are not random! What happens can be expected.

The World's Edge is Sin and Death

The big thing we must realize is that (like the casino) the Kingdom of Darkness of this world has an edge ... it is called sin. As we sin, we continue to lose out on life. Eventually, we will go bankrupt ... death. Along the way, bad strategies will give us poor health, aging more rapidly, and bring many other problems with relationships.

Worldwide, there are many statistics to follow. We can see what the averages and likelihood of certain events are well before they happen. What is more important than that is the 'why' things are happening that way.

Raising Risk in Life

There are many things that people do to raise the risk of how they live life. Generally, following any false philosophy, worldview, or religion will cause problems. Physically it can include diet, activity level / excercise. Spiritually, although working with the dark side (demons, cruses, and magic) might bring some small immediate benefits, the long term cost is terrible. One example I have shared elsewhere is the 'born loser' effect one person seems to suffer because of his involvement in Freemasonry. For him, it is a constratn struggle to have equipement that works and functions. For other people, different problems appear.

Advantage Play Forgiveness

Something the casin is not prepared for are players with skill (not a betting scheme, real skill). The Kingdom of Darkness is not prepared for people who have been forgiven through a Savior. These advanced players will go through life with much different results ... especially peace.

This page is under construction. My apologies for any misspellings, repeated text, missing references, etc. Please visit again later for a more complete treatment of this topic.